Latest Poll

The Associated Press will unveil the latest Public Policy Institute of California poll just on time for tomorrow's papers.

It will show likely California voters opposing all three of the initiatives Schwarzenegger is promoting on his special election ballot. The survey also will show the governor's job-performance rating plunging, with just 34 percent approving of the job he is doing.

Predictions

Starting a new feature today. Each and every Tuesday your former Governor will use his precognitive powers to predict happenings for the rest of the week.

Prediction One: Governor Schwarzenegger will not come to an accord of any kind with Legislative Democrats. (Alright, alright, I’ll go out on limb now)

Prediction Two: Loretta Sanchez (pictured) will not run for Governor.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported last week that the OC Congresswoman was in smoke-filled backrooms putting feelers out to union leaders on a possible run.

Other sources say she is in the field polling (since last week) and will come to a decision this week.

This talk of running is purely for vanity reasons only. While it will come close to looking like yes, it ultimately will be no, followed by an endorsement for either Steve of Phil.

Prediction Three: Kevin McCarthy will convince another GOP candidate for AD 53 to drop out.

Despite his minions saying they despise decisions coming from Sacramento, the decision has been made by the Sacramento GOP to back Mary Jo Ford in the race to succeed dearly-parted Democrat Mike Gordon.

Prediction Four: The next Los Angeles Times Poll will should a mini-bounce for the Governor.

The Governor has been laying low on the rhetoric for weeks now. Take a gander at what Ventura County Star state bureau chief Timm Herdt thinks of the situation here.

Arnold has been doing what he should been doing since January – governing. But his approval numbers won’t rise higher than 45 %. The damage has been done. And the lead (nope, not silver) lining for this cloud is that his initiative agenda will be below 45% too.

Which leads to…

Prediction Five: The Governor will finally endorse Proposition 75 – Union Dues.

Seeing no way to come to an accord with Demos and his approval ratings in the tank, the Governor will blame everyone for his downfall but himself. To wit, he will attack those he feels responsible for his downfall - the unions.

The biggest cheerleaders for this move are all the Wilsonites in the horseshoe. (a.k.a. the Governor’s first floor capitol offices)

React to me!

The Governor's Death March

Despite earlier reports his seniors advisors were trying to engineer a way to cancel the November 8 Special Election, the Los Angeles Times reported Monday the Governor plans to go forward.

As lawyers scrambled to resurrect one of his most important voter initiatives, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Monday that he would not cancel the Nov. 8 special election.

"I will continue moving forward exactly as I have been," Schwarzenegger said at an event in the Capitol that encouraged children to eat healthy foods. "We need reform."

If the Governor continues “moving forward exactly as [he has] been,” how much lower will his poll numbers go?

If you read the Times story further, it looks like Arnold is hoping for a life preserver from the majority Democrats.

The governor said he would prefer a "bipartisan solution," in which he and the Democrats who lead the Legislature would place some sort of modified initiative on the ballot.

"I'm not going to give up on that," Schwarzenegger said. "I'm going to continue working on it. And hopefully we will reach that kind of compromise and can go to the special election together."

If the appeal for Prop. 77 (redistricting) fails and it remains off the ballot, expect the Governor to come out swinging for the union dues initiative. It’s his only chit in bargaining with the Democrats.

Even so, it not likely to be effective since it will easy to paint the Governor as a “desperate man” who will do anything to save his skin.

More and more, the Special Election is looking like a death march for the Governor and his team.

The Other White Meat?!

From the California Democratic Majority comes this handy "Guide to Identifying Gov. Schwarzenegger's Budget Pork."

Enjoy!

Prop. 77 suit: Process v. Expediency

Last Friday, the Attorney General filed suit to have Proposition 77 - a measure changing the way California's political boundaries are drawn – removed from the ballot.

At issue is the initiative circulated by Peoples Advocate differed from the one they submitted to the Attorney General for review.

You can read more about the lawsuit and petition differences here, here and here.

The conflict can be bolied down to expediency versus process.

The argument made for expediency is these differences are minor and should not be allowed to thwart the will of the more than 900,000 petition signers. Supporters of Prop. 77 would tell you the meaning of “selected” versus “nominated” doesn’t amount to a hill of beans. Several newspaper editorials over the weekend supported this view.

On the other hand, process may win the day. In his statement announcing the suit, Attorney General Lockyer said any differences should not be tolerated.

“By opting to collect signatures on a ballot measure different from the text reviewed and approved by the Attorney General, the proponents violated state law and deceived voters. Allowing access to the ballot for initiative proponents who switch or modify text during the signature gathering phase would defeat existing laws designed to protect the integrity of state elections and would corrupt the people's initiative process.”

Supporters may argue the differences are meaningless, but they ignore the larger issue: What kind of precedent would this set?

Sacramento Bee columnist Daniel Weintraub wrote:

“If they let the initiative stand, despite the mistakes, the courts will set a precedent that could lead to greater abuses down the road.”

Exactly.

Expect the Democratic Leadership to hammer “protecting the integrity of the process” for the next few days.

Ain’t Nothing Like the Real Thing, Baby

In its weekly political poopsheet, the Sacramento Bee questions the authenticity of the former eBay vice president and gubernatorial candidate Steve Westly’s weblog.

[U]pon further inspection, Westly's blog doesn't seem to have many posts from Westly himself. Instead, the majority of posts come from campaign aides, gushing over the house parties in which Westly announced his campaign earlier this month.

[clippity clip]

As of Friday, Westly had only one personal post - and even that was relayed through his campaign staff via telephone.

"I think a lot of people think blogs by political officials are formal or canned or heavily edited," said Westly spokesman Nick Velasquez. "But this is the real thing; this is Steve Westly, right on the Web site."

Um…yeah, spokesguy, whatever you say.

All snickering aside, campaigns have yet to figure out how to use blogs successfully. Will they ever?

Yes, they can be a way to communicate with potential voters, but the true danger lies in feeding the opposition tasty tidbits to be used later.

This dead man promises you the only dedicated readers of Wesley weblog are Schwarzenegger and Angelides’ campaign staffers.

WESTLY 2006. He may not be the ideal candidate but make no mistake.......

This millionaire is in.......

State Controller and EBay co-founder Steve Westly officially launched his gubernatorial bid this past weekend. Why has Westly passed up a safe reelection bid for the uncertainty of the 2006 governor's race?

It would be one thing to make a decision based on what our current governor is doing but It is hard to say if he even knows what his future holds at this time.

One thing is for sure, Phil and Steve are going to be starving for attention between now and November. How will they capitalize when the media occasionally turns their attention to these two suitors?

The Ideal Candidate?

When you look at polling data this far from out the 2006 election, it’s easy to misread the Governor's popularity. More often then not, the survey question asked in these early polls reads something like “Thinking about the 2006 Governor’s race, are you inclined to vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger, or someone else?”

It’s that “someone else” who ends up beating the current officeholder. He's the ideal candidate in the respondent’s mind, so of course they choose the ideal over the real – wouldn’t you? Invariably, the result is low, sometimes sub-50, re-elect numbers and the opposition party gets excited.

As the saying goes, you can’t beat someone with no one.

So, will be that special someone?

Andres Martinez, one of the new guard on the Los Angeles Times' editorial board, offers some excellent ideas in his column, Casting Call for the 'Anti-Arnold': Business-world celebrities should apply.

Martinez argues Democrats shouldn’t look for another Hollywood celebrity to run against the current office hold, but “cast against type” and find someone from the business world.

The power of celebrity to capture an audience is undeniable, but a star from the left wouldn't conjure up Reagan- or Arnold-like magic. No, the Democratic equivalent of a GOP movie star candidate is a celebrity candidate from the business world.

It's all about casting against type. What gives Hollywood GOP politicos their aura of contrarian independence isn't so much that they are rich movie stars new to politics. It's the fact that they have descended from behind that sign on those leftist hills, their Republican faith miraculously intact.

A Democratic movie star in politics wouldn't have that same aura of independence, but a big-name CEO as the Democratic standard-bearer would. He or she would have emerged, their faith in the Democratic creed intact, from a world where people are supposed to be Republican.

Martinez makes some very strong points, but your humble former-Governor hastens to add some other important criteria: residence and stances on social issues.

The last four Governors have hailed from Southern California. Coincidence? Maybe, but the Los Angeles-San Diego megalopolis is home to more than half of the state’s voters.

And, while there is no magic formula on the issues front, if a candidate is pro-choice, pro-gun safety (not control) and pro-death penalty, there are in sync with a majority of voters.

These are broad strokes to be sure, but when you start seeing those polls, keep these thoughts in mind.